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Sports Betting as Investment
  • Posted by Alex
  • Date : 7 Jan 2021
  • Time : 10:00 AM

This article comes as a sequel to the article Bankroll Management.
So make sure you've read that one before you continue reading the following rows, to get a good idea of how to adopt a proper Sports Betting Bankroll.
As I've mentioned in the previous article, only 2% of bettors out there are successful, while the other 98% are losers. And this happens because most of the bettors don't treat Sports Betting serious. They see it as a form of gambling, instead of seeing it as an investment. As soon as you change your perspective, everything changes.
Sports Betting is just like Poker, Crypto or Investing in the Market. Do you think every successful investor places all his money on 1 bet, on 1 share, on 1 crypto currency, at 1 poker table? That would be CRAZY!

There are Ups and Downs in all these domains and there is NOT a single one investor out there in the whole world that went ONLY UP and NEVER DOWN!

One thing that is known by all the bettors, even beginners, but mostly regulars, is that no event is 100% sure. No matter how much you trust a bet, no matter how many of your friends tell you that they've placed the same bet and they're sure it will win, no matter how much you've analyzed that event, the outcome of that bet is always unknown. We've all encountered tens or hundreds, if not thousands, of unpleasant surprises in Sports Betting. And that's one of the things that Bookmakers rely on for profit. You can just imagine the amount of money they make when a strong team fails to deliver the result against a weak opponent. And this happens on a regular basis.
Second thing Bookmakers rely on for profits is the High Odds Mirage. Once you get a lucky win by betting on a high odd and you get a taste from that sweet easy earned profit, you're caught in their web. Now you think your inspiration is through the roof and you can get another big win. You lose that one, then you say to yourself that you'll only place one last bet just to recover that previous loss and then you'll stop. Then you lose this last bet and soon enough your balance is 0 and you need to deposit more money. How many of you can relate to that? Be honest, no one can hear you here (wink).
No matter how much value you might believe a certain odd offers you, trust me, it's way below its actual value. No Bookmaker out there will offer you the real value for an odd. But you can't fight this, you can only accept it and do your best to get the most out of it.
Other things Bookmakers rely on for profits are bettors not having and respecting a Bankroll, and lack of patience and discipline (qualities rarely found in people nowadays).
Some of the best event analysts and psychologists are hired by Bookmakers (because they can easily afford them) and their only job is to maximize the profits. If you don't have Patience and Discipline, don't have a proper Bankroll and don't analyze every event before placing only a small portion of your money on it, you don't stand a chance against them. In their eyes, you're just like little bees bringing your nectar to the hive. In this case, the bookmaker is the queen, the nectar is the money you keep depositing and the hive is their banking account.

Anyway, getting back to the main subject, assuming you've taken my advice in the beginning and you've already read the Bankroll Management article (otherwise you won't really understand the following rows), I will now explain how you can grow your Bankroll on a regular basis and along with that, your profits. This can be applied also in Poker, Crypto and the Stock Market, all the investments I've previously compared Sports Betting to.
The idea is that as soon as you've doubled your Bankroll (showed a profit of 2.000 units) you recalculate your Max Bet, 5% of the New Bankroll (Max Bet being now also double than the previous one). But it doesn't stop here.
In the previous article about Bankroll Management I gave you an example with a 2.000€ Bankroll. Now let's say you reach 4.000€ with your Bankroll and your Max Bet becomes 200€ (5% of Bankroll). You've got 2 options. Either wait until you double again and you'll need a profit of 2.000 units to reach a 8.000€ Bankroll or go for a lower milestone of 6.000€ Bankroll and you'll only need a profit of 1.000 units.
Either go from Double to Double every time with the Bankroll, or choose different milestones like 2.000, 4.000, 6.000, 8.000, 10.000, 15.000, 20.000 that will require a lower amount of units of profit every time and will be easier to achieve. With every milestone you reach your confidence will grow, your patience and discipline will be fortified - seeing results that pay off and that will determine you to be more patient and disciplined. Because, trust me here, your Patience will be tested big times when it comes to Sports Betting! Lots of unpleasant surprises, there will be times when you'll go from loss to loss (inevitable) and the only thing the Bookmakers are waiting from your part is one mistake, that little piece that will shatter everything you've built so far, just like the Jenga game.

LACK OF PATIENCE is one of the main reasons why most of bettors fail and the Bookmakers know this thing better than anyone.

If you run into a bad streak, with loss after loss (in case you've opted to recalculate from Double to Double you'll need 10 losses in a row), then it's also detrimental to lower your Bankroll, same as when you go up, now you need to go down and recalculate your Max Bet. If this will happen to you, this right here is the Final Test to your Patience and Discipline. Now you'll find out if you're meant to be amongst the Winning 2% of bettors or the Losing 98% of bettors.
When you reach your Max Bet target, let's say you got a Bankroll of 20.000€ with a 1.000€ Max Bet, now it's time to consolidate your Bankroll before enjoying the profits. Now you go for another 1.000 units of profit and your New Bankroll rules will become: Bankroll of 3.000 units with a Max Bet of 3.3%. You can even consolidate further to 4.000 units Bankroll with 2.5% Max Bet or 5.000 units Bankroll with 2% Max Bet. The lower the percentage that the Max Bet represents out of the Bankroll, the safer you'll be. When you've reached your end target and you're happy with your calculations you've made for yourself, you can enjoy your profits on a monthly basis, money that you're free to spend on whatever you enjoy most.

Keep in mind that even 200 units of PROFIT/MONTH means 10% INCREASE ON YOUR BANKROLL! I'm sure most of you heard about the Compound Effect and its miraculous financial rewards (if you haven't be sure to read about it online as soon as you're done with this article). My humble opinion - and this is just my opinion, feel free to disregard it - is that nothing can compare with Sports Betting and I will give you some examples:
• Depositing money in a bank (worst investment ever by the way) - you get a ROI of MAX 3%/YEAR (regular savings account);
• Investing in the Stock Market (S&P500 for example) - a great YEAR would be a 10% ROI (and that is before taxes);
• Investing in Real Estate (Rentals) - buying a property with a ROI of 10%/YEAR would be considered an amazing business opportunity, but that Investment requires more money from the start and finding a property with that ROI is not that easy to find (and most of the times only available to more privileged people that have access to that information).
Here I'm talking about other safe investments, on the long term, cause everyone can have a great day in trading or betting, but getting huge wins usually are very risky and don't happen quite often (and most of the times don't even cover the losses suffered until you got lucky).

See Sports Betting as an Investment, Have Patience and Discipline and maybe sooner than you think you'll make more money than you've ever thought, on a regular basis. Money that you can use to diversify, invest in other opportunities that can bring you that stress-free life, doing only what you love most.
And always remember, It's better to suffer the pain of discipline now, than to suffer the pain of regret later!

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